And the reciprocal statement is also true: just because someone has been wrong about something important, doesn’t mean that they are forever wrong on all subjects. For that reason, I occasionally read the works of people I know are wrong headed in general, simply because every once in a while, they see something useful that I did not.Marie CurieReturning to the idea that behavioral studies have shown that professionals are often not rational, I will make mention here of recent work done by psychologist and economics Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman. In a recent talk at the Wharton School, he said he had been consulting to various businesses and medical groups, and although he had expected to be “awed” by their decision making prowess, he was not in fact “awed.” He pointed out that large organizations have many procedures and internal guidelines that are “stupid,” with “really poor thinking you see all around you.” He cited disturbing evidence about the professional judgment of experts: “You put the same x ray in front of radiologists, and about 20% of the time in some experiments they don’t reach the same diagnosis.” I would also mention, now that I’m on the subject of physicians, an anecdote that famous thinker Nassim Taleb presented in one of his books.
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